A different kind of BAbip: TFbnm

BAbip is a stat that helps track luck.

A pitcher might make a great pitch, but it results in a weak roller that goes for a hit. If you are star-crossed, that happens often. Another pitcher might hang a curve over the plate, but it results in smash line drive out. If you are fortunate, that happens often. Batting average for balls in play (BAbip) is one measure for discriminating the lucky, good from bad.

We might need a new stat, the "traded for but not mentioned" stat (TFbnm).

Consider the Sabathia/LaPorta trade. A Cy Young winner traded for a prospect. The prospect has been struggling. The pressure is clearly weighing on him.

The fans are screaming that the trade was terrible, because the prospect is not becoming a star.

But here is the thing. The trade was not one for one. The Cy Young winner was traded for multiple players. And more than one of the players received makes it to the big leagues. But because of how the trade is portrayed, they never feel the pressure of providing equal value for the star player.

Case in point, Michael Brantley will be leading off for Cleveland on Opening Day. Brantley and LaPorta were two of four players traded for Sabathia. While this fact is largely ignored in Brantley's case, it is the focus of LaPorta's development.

There should be a stat for that.

Game 2 Pitchers vs. Hitters

There are strange unwritten rules in baseball. For example, you can't change the lineup to maximize a lineup on Opening Day. So, Mark Teahan had good numbers against Carmona. But that does not matter on Opening Day. He is not the official starting third baseman . You can change things up on game 2. So, I will allow for alternative lineups.

Carlos Carrasco vs. White Sox lineup (career)

1.__ LF__ Juan Pierre _______.200/.429/.400 (7PAs)
2.__ 2B__ Gordon Beckham ___never faced each other.
3.__ CF__ Alex Rios _________.333/.333/1.333 (3 PAs) 1 HR
4.__ DH__ Adam Dunn ______never faced each other.
5.__ 1B__ Paul Konerko ______.000/.000/.ooo (6 PAs) 3 KOs
6.__ RF__ Carlos Quentin _____never faced each other.
7.__ SS__Alexei Ramirez ______.333/.333/1.333 (3 PAs) 1 HR
8.__ C___ A.J. Pierzynski _____never faced each other.
9.__ 3B__ Brent Morel _______.333/.333/.667 (3 PAs)

Very little here but that is to be expected. Don't look for Vizquel or Teahen. Vizquel is 0 for 8, and Teahen is 0 for 6. The HR numbers are noteworthy. 2 HR in 22 PAs. The 40 degree Cleveland weather should diminish the significance of this a bit. But it is worth monitoring.

Ttfc vs. Edwin Jackson

1.__ CF__ Michael Brantley _____.333/.333/.417 (12 PAs)
2.__ SS__ Asdrubal Cabrera _____.174/.200/.391 (25 PAs) 1 HR 7 KOs
3.__ RF__ Shin-Soo Choo ______.400/.478/.550 (19 PAs) 5 KOs
4.__ C___ Carlos Santana ______Never faced the White Sox
5.__ DH__ Travis Hafner ______.190/.261/.381 (23 PAs) 1 HR
6.__ 2B__ Orlando Cabrera _____.333/.500/1.333 (6 PAs) 1 HR
7.__ LF__Austin Kearns _______.167/.375/.167 (8 PAs)
8.__ 1B___ Matt LaPorta _______.000/.000/.000 (5 PAs) 2 KOs
9.__ 3B__ Jack Hannahan ______.000/.000/.000 (2 PAs)

alts._C__Lou Marson__________.400/.571/.400 (7PAs)
alts. _UT_Shelley Duncan_______.500/.600/1.500 (5 PAs) 1 HR

Not much history here. Jackson has been effective in missing our bats.

I like this matchup. You have two young right handers. Jackson is going bring mid-90s fastball with decent movement. He doesn't have great movement on his secondary pitches. He will try to keep hitters off balance by changing speeds. Carrasco doesn't throw as hard or change the velocity of his pitches as Jackson. He does have better movement on his pitches.

Game 3 Pitchers vs. Hitters

Justin Masterson vs. White Sox lineup (career)

1.__ LF__ Juan Pierre _______.545/.615/.545 (13PAs)
2.__ 2B__ Gordon Beckham ___..556/.556/.556 (9 PAs)
3.__ CF__ Alex Rios _________.167/.286/.389 (21 PAs) 1 HR
4.__ DH__ Adam Dunn ______.500/.667/2.000 (3 PAs) 1 HR
5.__ 1B__ Paul Konerko ______.214/.353/.286 (17 PAs)
6.__ RF__ Carlos Quentin _____.000/.154/.000 (13 PAs)
7.__ SS__Alexei Ramirez ______.214/.313/.429 (17 PAs) 1 HR
8.__ C___ A.J. Pierzynski _____.357/.357/.429 (22 PAs)
9.__ 3B__ Brent Morel _______never faced each other.

alts. _3B_Mark Teahen_______.286/.474/.357 (19 PAs)

Yeah, those are some ugly numbers. I am going to take a detailed look at how Masterson pitches to the lefties.

Ttfc vs. John Danks

1.__ CF__ Michael Brantley _____Never faced each other.
2.__ SS__ Asdrubal Cabrera _____.250/.250/.250 (13 PAs)
3.__ RF__ Shin-Soo Choo ______.368/.368/.632 (19 PAs) 1 HR
4.__ C___ Carlos Santana ______Never faced the White Sox
5.__ DH__ Travis Hafner ______.190/.261/.381 (23 PAs) 1 HR
6.__ 2B__ Orlando Cabrera _____.333/.500/1.333 (6 PAs) 1 HR
7.__ LF__Austin Kearns _______.167/.375/.167 (8 PAs)
8.__ 1B___ Matt LaPorta _______.000/.000/.000 (5 PAs) 2 KOs
9.__ 3B__ Jack Hannahan ______.000/.000/.000 (2 PAs)

alts._UT_Adam Everett_________.308/.308/.538 1 HR
alts._C__Lou Marson__________.400/.571/.400 (7PAs)
alts. _UT_Shelley Duncan_______.500/.600/1.500 (5 PAs) 1 HR
alts._LF_Travis Buck__________.250/.250/.250 (4 PAs)

Choo should have a good series. He has great numbers against all three Chicago starters. This is probably the first game for Marson and Buck.

Housekeeping

I will occasionally create posts that will serve as useful links in future articles. I have done that today.

ISO

Isolated Power is a batters slugging percentage minus his batting average.

O-Swing %

It is the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone to which a batter swings.

Contact %

It is the percentage of swings that make contact with the pitch (fair or foul).