Thursday, March 13, 2008

The Cleveland (ttfc) offensive philosophy

The stated philosophy is to look at the lineup in terms of trios and get production from all three trios.

In other words, the 1, 2, and 3 spots must be able to produce runs. And you want to think about how that trio will go about producing those runs (e.g., OB + speed + extra base hits+ power in the 3 spot). Of course, the first inning might end with a three up three down. So, the 4, 5, and 6 spots must be able to produce runs. And again, you want to think about how that trio will produce runs (e.g., OB + power). Same idea for the bottom three.

That is the stated philosophy. Let me make another observation about the Cleveland offensive philosophy from a different perspective. Instead of looking at the lineup, look at the positions. And instead of looking at trios, look at pairs.

Implicit in the Cleveland philosophy is a pairing system with regard to production. According to traditional baseball wisdom, third base should be a run producing position. That position should produce somewhere in the ballpark of 30 HR, 100 RBI, and .900 OPS. I am claiming that the Cleveland philosophy is not to look at individual positions. Look at position pairs. Maybe you can't get 30 HR, 100 RBI, and .900 OPS out of third base, but maybe you can get a combined 40 HR, 160 RBI, and .800 OPS out of the third base shortstop pair. This combined production is equivalent to (if not better than) the production generated using traditional wisdom.

Pair Garko's league average production at first base with Martinez above average production at catcher. The below average production in left field with Sizemore's above average production in center field. Of course, these particular pairings are arbitrary, but the idea is that the offense must be viewed in terms of pairings.

Of course, this is model. It requires the players to perform up to expectations.

This way of thinking of things helps us see why players like Hafner are so important. Hafner's year long slump caused problems for the offense, because his above average production is supposed to make up for the below average production in right field. (This pairing model might also explain the reluctance to move Peralta to third, given the above average production at short is needed to make up for below average production elsewhere.)

Cleveland goes into the 08 season expecting less than what is traditional ideal production at all four corners. That means, they need above average production at four other positions. This burden falls on Martinez, Sizemore, Hafner, and Peralta.

ttfc

No comments: