Sunday, March 20, 2011

Analysis: Asdurbal Cabrera

If Asdrubal was a . . .

. . . cartoon character, he would be . . . . Lisa Simpson. They wore the same necklace.
. . . bird, he would be . . . a robin. A completely average bird but in a good way.
. . . an indie rock band, he would be . . . Broken Bells. What is not to like about the Broken Bells? But could they really be anyone's favorite band for more than a couple of weeks?

I am a fan of the Baseball Prospectus podcasts. They have been talking at length (ad nauseam?) about the scouts' 20 to 80 scale. The two keys to getting the scale are, first, it is a bell curve. Saying that a player has an 80 tool is saying that tool is in the top 1%. A player with 2 tools that rate at 60 is a potential star. Second, it is a very high standard. Being average is good. Having 3 50 tools means you have average tools, but that makes you a very valuable major leaguer. There aren't teams with average tools players at all their positions.

Asdrubal is a good player in that he is completely average. Between the star and the stiff, we find Asdrubal.

With the glove, he plays both second and short. His range is a little below average. His arm is average. It is above average at second and below at short. He plays both positions well. Does a good job turning two. Makes the routine plays. He even makes some flashy plays that hide his below average range. In between Vizquel and Perralta, we find Cabrera.

With the bat, his best tools are his ability to make contact and his gap power. He makes contact around 85% of the time and the league average is around 80%.

Asdrubal should shout from the mountain tops, "I have gap power!" He hits an extra base at a rate of roughly 1 in 4. 72% of his hits are singles, but only 4% of his hits were homers. Compare Cabrera's numbers to Mark Grace's, a quintessential gap power hitter. Mark Grace hit singles at a rate of 70%. Moreover, only 7% of Grace's hits were homers. Asdrubal has gap power. Which is good. Between Jim Thome and Alex Cole, we find Asdrubal Cabrera.

Asdrubal is never going to be a great OB guy. He walks at a rate of 8.2%

He lacks homer power.

He has a career 27 stolen bases. So, he is no speed demon. But again, he doesn't have horrible speed. He is the yin to Robbie Alomar to the yang of Tony Fernandez. In this case, the yin meets the yang with almost no stolen base attempts. Asdrubal has been on base 569 times and attempted a steal 39 times.

Asdrubal is between this and that. And that is a good thing. Somewhere between the super moon and Clevleand city.

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