Ordering the rotation

Now that we the rotation will be Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco, Mitch Talbot and Josh Tomlin, let us consider the order of the rotation.

Fausto Carmona

Fausto is a over the top right handed pitcher. He throws 4 pitches: a 4-seam fastball, a 2-seam fastball (sinker), a slider and a change up. The 4-seamer averages 92.9 mph. The sinker averages 91.1. The slider averages 85.7. The change averages 86. The following graph shows the movement on his pitches.



Justin Masterson

Justin is a three quarters right handed pitcher. He throws four pitches: a 4-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider and a change up. The 4-seamer averages 92 mph. The sinker averages 92.6. The slider averages 82.9. The change averages 85.1. The following graph shows the movement on his pitches.



Carlos Carrasco

Carlos is a three quarters right handed pitcher. He throws 5 pitches: a 4-seam fastball, a sinker, a split fingered fastball (splitter), a curveball and a change up. The 4-seamer averages 92.9 mph. The sinker averages 92.6. The splitter averages 83.5. The curve averages 79.6. The change averages 86.2. The following graph shows the movement on his pitches.




Mitch Talbot

Mitch is a three quarters right handed pitcher. He throws 5 pitches: a 4-seam fastball, a sinker, a cut fastball (cutter), a slider and a change up. The 4-seamer averages 91.3 mph. The sinker averages 90.8. The cutter averages 89.2. The slider averages 84.8. The change averages 80.3. The following graph shows the movement on his pitches.



Josh Tomlin

Josh is an over the top right handed pitcher. He throws 5 pitches: a 4-seam fastball, a sinker, a cutter, a curve and a change up. The 4-seamer averages 89.8 mph. The sinker averages 87.7. The cutter averages 85.7. The curve averages 76.5. The change averages 80.5. The following graph shows the movement on his pitches.



Analysis:

What strikes me is how similar Carmona and Masterson are. Carmona has a nice change that he features against lefties. But the velocity, movement, and pitch type of Carmona and Masterson are near identical. For this reason, I think you have to separate those two. Hitters do better the more times they see a pitchers pitches. Putting near identical pitchers back to back is a big advantage for the hitters.

Further, you have similar pitchers in Carrasco and Tomlin. Carrasco throws harder but that have similar movement on their pitches.

So, I suggest the following rotation order.

Carmona
Carrasco
Masterson
Talbot
Tomlin