Thursday, March 17, 2011

Huh?

Cleveland PD beat writer recently opined that Jack Hannahan might be the next Casey Blake.

I like Hoynes, but he has had some head scratchers lately. Comparing Casey Blake and Jack Hannahan? Huh?

Casey Blake had a total of 63 MLB plate appearances, when Cleveland made him a starter. He had bounced around the minors and from team to team. But no one had given him a chance. In his first year as a starter, he hit .257 with 17 HRs.

Jack Hannahan has a total of 981 MLB plate appearances. Yes, he too has bounced around from team to team. But Oakland gave him a full year as a starter in '08. In his full year as a starter, Hannahan hit .218 with 9 HRs.

There is a stat BABIP (Batting Average with Balls In Play). It is a good indicator, if a player is lucky or unlucky. Some guys can get a bunch of bloop singles, while others seem to smoke liners right at people time and again. This stat often explains when players have fluke good or bad years.

In Casey Blake's first full year, he had a .287 BABIP. That is a little unlucky. The next year Casey had a .310 BABIP (which is pretty average). Casey's batting average went from .257 to .271.

In Jack Hannahan's first full year, he had a .286 BABIP, and again he hit .218 that year. Using Casey's stats, we can see that with a little more lucky Hannahan could have hit. around .232.

At 31, there is no lightning in a bottle for Hannahan. He is a glove first bench player. He could fill in for a couple of weeks. But there is no way, you want to give him 500 at bats.

No comments: