Two roads diverge in a yellow wood (NSFW)

Sure, Robert Frost's poem is easily the most over-quoted poem in human history.  But fuck, if it isn't pretty.  I reread it today as prep for the post.  If you haven't read it in awhile, do so.  I tend to like things dark, abstract, absurd, or ironic.  But there is value in occasionally pausing and glimpsing the earnest beautiful.

....Anyway...Two roads diverged for Cleveland this off season...And I'll go from beauty to vulgarity.....

They were coming off a terrible season.  Let's not relive it, but the god damned plane has crashed into the mountain.  The toe was in the envelope, they didn't make the hand-off, and they're gonna to kill that poor woman.  It was bad. 

Cleveland was a crossroad.  They could tear it down and rebuild.  This is a well worn path.  We have been down it a time or twenty.  Houston and Miami are going down that path this year.  The Cubs, Pirates, and Padres have worn their souls bare traveling down that road. 

Cleveland came close to going down rebuild road.   Francona did not start us down the road of contention.   Terry Francona signed to the Tribe out of friendship.  He has an out-clause in his contract, if his friends, Shapiro and Antonetti, are fired.  If you needed one more reason to love Terry Francona, he was on board when rebuilding was a real possibility. 

The path diverged with Arizona trade.  Arizona needed a shortstop.  They had soured on Bauer, and we really liked him.  Asbrubal is approaching free agency.  The fit was there.  We signed Mike Aviles, giving us a major league replacement.  The Cleveland brass was readying for the rebuild.

It didn't happen.   

But go back to that moment.  Look down that path.  Asdrubal Cabrera for Trevor Bauer.  Mike Aviles is a major league short stop but he isn't Asdrubal.  So, we were downgrading a 94 loss team.  Do we sign Swisher?  Not likely, right?  But we do trade Choo.  Boras is his agent and wants him to test the free agent market.  Cleveland had to move him now if they hoped to get any value him.  And Bourn?  Forget about it. 

The path most traveled was question marks in left, right, and DH.  Want to look down that path?  See Ben Francisco and Chris McGuiness. 

Not to belabor the point, but Francona signed on to a 94 loss team that might lose both Choo and Cabrera.  (Francona showed us Kosar love.)

Instead Cleveland is trying to thread the needle.  Be competitive now and try to build for the future.  That is the path less traveled.  Maybe there is a reason for that.  This might not work.  But for a moment look down the well worn path and be glad for the road less taken.   

AMC presents their hit series CLE LF 2012

I'm a fan of AMC's Walking Dead. 

Yep, it's zombies.  But my interest stems from the real human responses to catastrophe.  For example, multiple characters lock away zombie, former-loved ones, hoping for a cure.  They know better.  But human nature, what it is, they hold out hope.  Maybe the walking dead can live again.  Ultimately, this proves tragically pointless. 

You want to know the difference between being a Cleveland fan now and last year?  Last year, we prayed that zombies could live.  

Last spring, we had an open competition for the left field spot.  Everyone failed.   Failed bad.  Duncan .759 OPS.  Cunningham .544 OPS.  Spilborghs .472 OPS.  Canzler .626 OPS.  ... There were more and all failed to mimic a MLB left fielder.  They say don't trust spring statistics.  But common sense said, rub your eyes and look at the corpses.    

Just like characters in the Walking Dead, former major leaguers were stored in our left field.  There is nothing dignified by pretending the dead will live again.  The climatic end of this charade was when we had to put down zombie Johnny Damon. 

No one wanted to see that. 

This year, we are not praying on zombies.  Dice-K, Kazmir, Giambi, and Raburn aren't going to win spots on a farce.

2013 differs from 2012, because only the living need apply. 

PECOTA projected lineup

BP had Ben Francisco and Chris McGuinness as those most likely to take ABs in the 8th and 9th spots in our batting order, respectively.

The Bourn signing ends that. 

This is a much improved team

Let's see-

Improvements:
-Better team spead
-Power at 1B
-Better OF def
-Versatile lineups
-No glaring weakness against lefthanded pitching
-Many veteran and rookie competition of rotation spots.

 Regressions:
Can you think of any??

CP: Confrontational Pitcher

Chris Perez does not shy from confrontation off the field.

He infamously called out Cleveland fans.  He got fined by MLB for violating their social media policy with his "you hit us and we'll hit you" quip.  And while these examples may been perhaps overblown, Perez is no shrinking violet.  (Just ask KC.)

But it is worth noting that CP is as in your face on the mound as he is on twitter.  In fact more so,  he leads MLB in % of pitches in the strike zone.  Perez throws 60% of his pitches in the strike zone.  Perez is not baiting hitters with incendiary comment hoping for swings outside the zone.  He gets you mad and brings it right at you.  

Love him or hate him.  Respect that he backs up his words by living in the strike zone.

Josh Tomlin: The little cowboy

“I couldn’t be any prouder of my little cowboy.”

Those were Manny Acta's comments after Cleveland's 2-1 victory over Seattle and Felix Hernandez.

Acta's nickname, while well intentioned, it is not the most flattering for a grown man. "Little cowboy" conjures up images of small children in cowboy hats and boots. Adorable. But most MLB players aren't going for adorable in a nickname.

Tomlin might rightly cringe at this nickname. But let's work with it, rather cast it aside.

If Tomlin were a Hollywood gunslinger, which movie cowboy would he be?

Acta points out that Tomlin (6-1/190) is small for a pitcher. So, let's eliminate character's played by John Wayne and Clint Eastwood.  No, Josie Wales or Rooster Cogburn here. 

Tomlin doesn't have a rocket fastball. He averages in the high 80s. His secondary stuff is average, not spectacular. Mark Shapiro tweets, "Easy to appreciate J Tomlin's competitiveness and athleticism. One guy who gets every ounce out of his natural talent and then some." So, lets eliminate the "fastest gun in the west" types. Tomlin, as a gunslinger, doesn't go into a crowded saloon and gun down twelve hired hands.  No, Will Munny or Harmonica here. 

Tomlin's success is based on gall and smarts. I cherry picked this stat a bit, but it still supports my point. Tomlin is 17th in MLB at getting batters to swing at pitches outside the zone (the 50 inning minimum is the cherry picking part). How do you get hitters to swing at average stuff outside the zone? Pitchability and pitch sequencing. In other words, smarts.

And as for gall, Tomlin is 13th in MLB for fewest walks (again using the cherry picked minimum 50 innings). This lets you know that he is willing to challenge hitters with mediocre stuff rather than give up walks. You know, gall.

So, we are looking for a movie cowboy with gall and smarts, but not amazing skill. But you may be asking yourself, success? Tomlin?

Two points should be made here. Tomlin has had moderate success. And let's start by ignoring the outlandish success of making to the majors with average stuff. Tomlin has pitched 291 innings with a xFIP of 4.21. Not bad. But consider that Tomlin has averaged around 6.3 innings per start. So, his average start is a quality start. I say that is pretty good for a guy without amazing stuff.

Which gets to the second point, you don't have to be the best to be interesting.  All pitchers can't be Roy Halladay or Justin Verlander. All gunslingers can't be the fastest draw.  That doesn't mean you can't be cool. Dying in a blaze of glory shouldn't be seen as a flaw. There are plenty of interesting ballplayers that don't have careers that span decades. So, Tomlin isn't destined for the Hall of Fame. So, what? That doesn't mean on a particular day he can't beat King Felix in a pitching duel. And it doesn't mean he isn't a damn entertaining pitcher to follow.

And so, here it is. If Tomlin were a gunslinger, he would be Butch Cassidy as portrayed by Paul Newman. Small of frame? Check, Newman was not a large man. Surviving on smarts rather than skill? Check, see the clip below. Gall? Check, see the famous jump scene for proof. Cool as hell? Check.

A quiet advantage

If you have been following baseball the past few weeks, you know that MLB has some terrible managers.  For example, Donnie Baseball called for consecutive sacrifice bunts.  That is right, Mattingly gave his team two outs in an inning.  If you don't follow baseball, there is only three outs in an inning. 

While there is much screaming to the hilltops about poor managerial decisions, it is worth noting that Joe Maddon isn't the only savvy manager in MLB. 

David Laurila has an excellent piece on Acta's 21st century managing.