Thursday, April 14, 2011

Angels/Cleveland Series Review

Baseball seasons are like movies.

I view a single game as like a single frame in a movie. It is there and gone before anyone can really notice. A series is like a movie shot. Get one shot of a character saying a line. Then you cut to a shot of another character replying. Then you cut to the characters together. End scene. Each series in the baseball season is a like a movie shot. A movie shot will give you a glimpse at a character from one point of view. Much like a series will show a team from a particular perspective. Another shot gives you a different perspective as does another series. Put a few movie shots together, and you have a scene. Put a few scenes together, and you have a plot. Put a few baseball series together, and you have a sense of the momentum of the team. Track the team's momentum over a few months, and you have a sense of the team's season. Just like in the movies, there is the occasional plot twist. But in general, baseball seasons are directed by Steven Speilberg and not M. Night Shyamalan.

With that in mind, let us look at the shot that was Cleveland vs. Angels.

Jose Mesa's eyes (warning signs) - My goal with these reviews are to do something interesting. I will try to not state the obvious. Yep. We had some problems with our fundamentals. Yep. Chad Durbin is struggling. However, I think the warning sign worth mentioning is Shin-Soo Choo's play. Yes, he is struggling at the plate. Choo is hitting .200/.275.267. However, I am not worried about Choo at the plate. He will hit. He is a career .295 hitter, and we should expect numbers like that by the end of the year. However, I think that Choo is letting his struggles at the plate effect his overall game. He got picked off third base on Wednesday. He over slide a base earlier in the weak. And he has .792 RZR (measure for range) in right field, a career low. I don't know what to do to fix the problem, but it needs to be addressed.

John Hart's vision (signs of hope) - Okay. I am going with the obvious here. Starting pitching. There will be some regression to the mean. However, it is worth noting that we got three quality starts in this series. Every starter in our rotation has had two consecutive good outings. Everyone is pitching like you hoped they would pitch. No deep analysis here. Just simple recognition and admiration.

Alex Cole's batting average (misleading stats) - Thus far, Mitch Talbot is averaging almost 3 more strikeout per 9 innings than his career average. He is averaging 8.03 KOs per 9 innings. Over his career Talbot avearages 5.16 KOs per 9. However, Talbot is not getting anymore swings and misses than he normally does. Opposing hitters are making contact on 86.8% of their swings at Talbot's pitches. This is actually a higher contact rate than his career average (85.9%). What is happening is that Talbot is throwing more strikes and hitters are taking less swings at Talbot's pitches. Talbot is throwing 48.3% of his pitches in the strike zone. That is up from his career percentage of 43.9%. Further, hitters are only swinging at 40.1% of his pitches. That is down from his career percentage of 42.9%. Of course, hitters will adjust and start being more aggressive. We should expect those strikeout numbers to drop. However, it is still a positive sign that Talbot is throwing more strikes.

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