Thursday, April 7, 2011

Cleveland/Boston series review

Wow. We swept the Boston Red Sox.

You are never as good as you look during a winning streak, and you are never as bad as you look during a losing streak. So, we should take this series with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, let's take a look.

Warning signs - In Thursdays game, Shelley Duncan doubles to lead off the seventh inning. Austin Kearns follows by popping out on an attempted bunt. Michael LaPorta follows by swinging at a first pitch sinker outside the strike zone that results in a weak ground ball. Travis Buck follows by swing at a first pitch fastball that results in a weak ground ball.

I am not concerned with the failed bunt. That is a lack of execution. Baseball is a tough game and fails of execution will happen.

However, the games was tied at 0 and the Red Sox have their ace on the mound. The pitch to LaPorta was Jon Lester's 108th pitch of the day. Swinging at the first pitch in that situation demonstrates a failure to understand the situation. Yes, a single would put Cleveland in the lead. But a walk could force Lester from the game. A walk would have put Lester's pitch count at 111 (at the very least), and Lester would still need two more outs. LaPorta should be coming to the plate looking to work the count deep and looking to put good wood on the ball. This was a very poor at bat for LaPorta. And Buck follows making the same mistake.

Signs of hope - This is the youngest team in baseball, but Manny has them making smart veteran plays. LaPorta had a delayed steal. Adam Everett got a key stole base. And of course, you have the suicide squeeze. In all three of these plays, Boston was caught napping. What is so encouraging is that Manny recognizes Boston's sloppy play and takes advantage of it. This is different than scoring a run do to fielding errors. Benefiting from errors is largely a matter of luck (and perhaps hustle). Having Everett steal second instead of bunting him over is good baseball.

Misleading stat - Mitch Talbot has a 2.68 FIP (fielding independent pitching on the ERA scale). Talbot did not pitch well in his first start. This fact is hidden by the stellar FIP. This stat is the result of Talbot's 7 KOs in 4 1/3 innings. However, Boston hitters only had 6 swinging strikes. They made contact on 85% of their swings. So, Talbot's high strikeout rate is a product of Boston hitter's looking at too many strikes.

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