Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Justin Masterson review of game 3

Entering the season the question was what would Masterson do to get lefties out. Would he introduce another pitch? Would he change his approach? Would he continue to get pounded by lefties?

After 3 games, lefties are hitting .267/.283/.333. This is an improvement over Masterson's career numbers against lefties, .293/.383/.435. Chicago lefties hit .455 against Masterson. Seattle lefties hit .211. And Baltimore lefties hit 214.

How is Masterson getting the lefties out? A new pitch? A new approach? Magic? Luck?

No new pitch. No new approach. He is doing what he has always done.

Isn't the mark of insanity to do the same thing over and over and expect different results?

Yes, it is. But Masterson isn't just doing the same thing. He is doing the same thing but better. Masterson is attacking the strike zone this year. He has thrown the ball in the strike zone 52.4% of the time. That is up from his career 47.8% mark. Chicago is the outlier of the three. Against Chicago, Masterson featured the fastball against the lefties. Against Seattle and Baltimore, Masterson used all 3 of his pitches.

Masterson's strike out numbers have fluctuated. What explains that?

Seattle struck out 9 times. Baltimore whiffed 3 times. And Chicago had no strike outs against Masterson. There are two reasons for this. One, Chicago and Baltimore were more aggressive. Seattle averaged over 1 pitch per at bat more than Chicago and Baltimore. Second, Masterson had a great slider against Seattle, and the slider is his strike out pitch. In fact, Masterson threw twice as many slider against Seattle than he did against Chicago and Baltimore.

So, is Masterson for real?

If he keeps doing what he is doing, then yeah, he is for real. Masterson is pitching on a Cliff Lee model. Keep the walks and homers way down. Get some strike outs and lots of ground balls. On days when he has a good slider, Masterson will get big strike out numbers. On days when he doesn't, he will rely on his sinker to get ground outs.

This has the makings of a breakout year for Masterson.

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