Justin Masterson preview for game 3

So, what are your expectations for Masterson this year? Masterson had a 3.81 ERA with a .302 BAbip (a luck neutral number) in the second half of last year. I think a reasonable goal is for Masterson to match his second half numbers from last year over 200 innings this year.

Over the course of a season, all pitchers have bad outings. The key is to have enough good starts to absorb the numbers from the bad starts. Some teams are particularly tough for Masterson. The best hitters in Minnesota, for example, are lefties. Some teams like Texas have incredible lineups. Some bad outings against teams like these are almost inevitable. Masterson needs to pitch well against the teams that he should pitch well.

Enter Baltimore.

Baltimore has a decent lineup. It is improved with the additions of Vlad, Reynolds, and DLee. But they are all righties. Brian Roberts, Luke Scott, and Nick Markakis are quality hitters and will bat left handed against Masterson. However, this is the type of lineup that Masterson needs to dominate.

Look for Baltimore to come with six batters hitting left handed Roberts, Markakis, Scott, Weiters, Pie, and Izturis. This will be a tougher challenge than Seattle. So, it is another important step for Masterson. I think that the measure of success should be a quality start (at least 6 innings and no more than 3 runs).

As I have shown before, Masterson changed his approach to facing lefties from game 1 to game 2. In game 1, he challenged lefties primarily with his 4-seam fastball. In game 2, he came at lefties with a sinker/slider mix with the occasional 4-seamer. So, this warrants attention.

Expect a detailed post-start analysis as I see Masterson as a key player. So, stay tuned.